Sunday, 25 November 2012

Lions Tour 2013: Form or Reputation?


John Bentley, part of the successful Lions Tour party of 1997 will always be remembered for his superb solo try against the Gauteng Lions. In the interview below, he emphasises the importance of picking players on form rather than reputation for next years Lions Tour down under.

It’s a straight forward argument and anyone in their right mind would agree whole heartedly. Warren Gatland aligns himself alongside Bentley’s argument pledging “we’ll pick the best players, and the captain after.” He went on to say “Someone may come through on tour whose form you can't ignore and who may force themselves into the Test side."

As sad as this may sound, I find this an intriguing concept. Can Gatland guarantee us that he’ll pick purely on form? His interview above was conducted on 31st October before the Autumn Internationals began. The video below, from the 22nd November looks at the selection dilemma at full back. Considering Rob Kearney is out injured and has only played 32 minutes of rugby all season and Halfpenny has performed quite well in a faltering side he does well (in my eyes) to dismiss the selection hopes of Alex Goode in favour of talking up the other players’ chances.

With more games in the Autumn Internationals and a 6 Nations to look forward to, I’m sure there will be many players who put their hand up for inclusion in the Lions Tour. As the pinnacle of anyone’s career, the selection process will not be taken lightly and with selection meetings scheduled throughout the next 6 months leading up the June/July tour, there will be plenty of headaches in deciding the right tour party.

I disagree that Gatland will pick purely on form and feel that reputation will guarantee some players a spot on the tour. With rugby pundits predicting a heavy Wales contingent in the Lions squad it baffles me they should have a majority share in the squad with two disappointing performances and losses to Argentina and Samoa. With the likes of Warburton playing below his best are we honestly going to see someone else taking his place should his poor form continue? I think not!
Another area where I feel there is a prime example is the fly half position. Sexton is nailed on to start at 10 in my opinion. If he has a poor 6 Nations, and is slightly off key for Leinster are we honestly going to leave him behind? The options outside of him are Priestland, Biggar, Flood, Farrell, Laidlaw and Jackson. In my eyes he is a different class and deserves a spot on the tour for his form over the past 2/3 years alone.

The other element we have to consider is the impact a Lion’s Tour place would have on your performance and form. Yes, you want to pick the best players but being the pinnacle of anyone’s career, you would leave nothing behind in every game you played. Ryan Jones optimised this in 2005. Called up to replace the injured Simon Taylor he gave everything, moving up from the midweek squad to the starting XV and was superb every minute he was on the field.  
 
You also have to be mentally as well as physically strong for the big games regardless of the opposition in front of you. I have it on good authority that on a recent trip to play London Welsh, another premiership side were so convinced they’d win, they went out the night before ‘to hit the beers’ A loss the next day tells you that the professional era does not give you a second chance and that a right frame of mind is also a key factor in the selection process.

Role of the Media
The strength of the media is the other selection tool Warren Gatland will have at his disposal (whether he wants it or not). Their perception of players form will be circulating round homes through computers, newspapers, radios and TV’s worldwide. This adds even more pressure for Gatland to make the right calls. To have the nation behind him he needs to pick astutely but just how much media pressure will Gatland be able to withstand before they start impacting on his selections?
 
The 1998 football World Cup saw Brazil take on Italy in the final. Ronaldo entered the world cup as ‘the world’s best’ according to football experts and scored 4 goals and made 3 assists. On the eve of the final he was alleged to have suffered a convulsive fit and was ruled out of the game. With less than an hour to go, he was reinstated and played in a 3-0 loss to Italy. His performance was below par and he eventually went off injured. A professor of clinical neurology at Birmingham University said “there is no way that he would have been able to perform to the best of his ability within 24 hours of his first fit”. Reports suggest that sponsors Nike forced Ronaldo to play to ensure their financial gains with the game being televised to millions of people worldwide.

You also have to argue that Brazil’s coach at the time Carlos Alberto Parreira was in a no win situation. Play Ronaldo and lose, his job is gone. Don’t play Ronaldo and lose, not only is his job gone but also his coaching credentials as well. Why would you rest your top striker for the biggest football match in the world? I remember the ‘fit’ was kept very quiet but eventually leaked out to the public. By this point it was irrelevant. The media cast its verdict on Parreira and he was removed from his post.

To an extent, this is true for Gatland. I’m thinking particularly about the back row in this respect. With injuries to Lydiate, Ferris and O’Brien, three nailed on tour party candidates when fit, can be without them if they only play a handful of games before selection? In my opinion they have to tour as we know what they are capable of. This is why we have to look at reputation as well as form.
I am going to stick my neck (and wallet) out on the line by saying that the following players below will be on the plane to Australia providing they are fit, regardless of form! For each player below which doesn’t tour, I will personally buy the founding father and co-editor of Rucking Good News a pint of beer!



 Potential Pint Penalties
David Denton
Owen Farrell
Tim Visser
Ben Foden
Gethin Jenkins
Alun Wyn Jones
Ben Morgan
Alex Cuthbert
Euan Murray
Steffon Armitage
Nathan Hines
 

Nailed on
Jonny Sexton
Sam Warburton
Manu Tuilagi
George North
Leigh Halfpenny
Rob Kearney
Dan Lydiate
Stephen Ferris
Dylan Hartley
Richie Gray
Jonathon Davies
Danny Care
Mike Phillips
Chris Ashton
Adam Jones
Dan Cole
Courtney Lawes
Brian O’ Driscoll
Toby Faletau

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