Thursday, 10 October 2013

Aviva Premiership 13/14 Top 4: All Change or Stay as You Were?


I though it might be good idea to see who the movers and shakers are after round 5 of the Aviva Premiership. It has been a fantastic few weeks, throwing up some great running rugby and some shock results to boot. 

Sitting pretty at the top of the pile are Saracens. A team this year, who seem determined to rip off those shackles and play the running rugby we so desperately asked of them.  With a backline boasting some of the most lethal finishers in the country it was about time they lived up to their billing. Throw into the mix a much beefier pack with additions Billy Vunipola and James Johnston and you start to see a side who have a well rounded edge and little in the way of weaknesses. The first 3 games optimised this and bonus point wins over London Irish, Gloucester and Bath showed a mixture of ‘forwards’ grunt and ‘backs’ prowess. Combine this with two gritty wins over Harlequins and Wasps and you see that Saracens haven’t lost their ‘wolfpack’ mentality.

They have also been lucky with injuries and with Will Fraser and Neil De Kock back to full fitness they have an abundance of talent to choose from.  Saracens are so good, that they can even bring players back from the brink of extinction......Jacques Burger. A one man wrecking ball, who is back and better than ever. Even a stamp to the face leading to 9 stitches on his eye lid can’t stop him having two man of the match performances.  We still haven’t seen the likes of Tim Streather, Championship Player of the season last year and with great strength in depth in all positions you can see Saracens pushing for honours across Europe this year. 
Northampton sit comfortably in second place and personally I feel they pose a real threat to take the top prize this year. After agonisingly missing out for a few seasons, could this be their year? From what I’ve seen, they look physical from 1 to 15. They too have made some excellent acquisitions in Kahn Fotuali’i and Lions superstars Alex Corbisiero and Geroge North and was it not for some horrific refereeing decisions against Gloucester they would be even hotter on the heels of Saracens. 

After the loss of Mujati and Tongahuia it was debated whether or not they would cope this season. Alex Corbisiero has done a great job since arriving and Tom Mercey for me, would be ‘work in progress.’ It’s the power from the second row and back row where Northampton look so strong. Samu Manoa and Courtney Lawes provide a shuddering amount of grunt and with a back row of Dowson, Wood and Van Velze, they are never short of any ‘go forward.’ The backs also look incredibly strong. The Pisi brothers have made a name for themselves in the midfield and add to that George North and Luther Burrell and you have a set of battering rams ready to get you over the gain line. 

Northampton definitely missed a trick on Saturday when they let Leicester back into the game at Welford Road. That would have been a real statement of intent and possibly highlights their one area of weakness.....their mentality.  I think back to the Premiership semi-final against Saracens at Franklins Gardens when Myler bottled the attempt at a drop goal. It is these moments that define winners and losers and I had a sense they still lack that killer instinct. If they can adopt that, then they really are in contention for some silverware this season.

Leicester complete the top three and with their coach having to sit and watch from a porter cabin, you would say they have done well. To me they are not the force of old but their never say die attitude and knowledge of how win still sees them competing in the top 4. The team looks like it is going through a rebuilding process. The loss of players such as Geordan Murphy and George Chuter means that the number of on field generals is reduced and players such as Toby Flood, Louis Deacon and Dan Cole now need to really step up and be counted. Their forwads still seem a very stable force and this was demonstrated on Saturday with the dismantling of Northampton’s scrum. Salvi is still one of the best number  7’s in the country and Jordan Crane is getting back to his best with his lung bursting runs and solid defence.
It is in the backs where I feel there is cause for concern.  Injury to Tuilagi has meant that Goneva has been moved from wing to centre. He did well against Exeter but was really found out against a much stronger backline in Northampton.  His Fijian style tackling technique means he often flies up for the big hit. More often than not against Northampton he missed, leaving the midfield exposed. When Scully was forced off they brought Dan Bowden onto the field as a make shift winger. To me it highlighted a lack of strength in depth outside of the fly half and could be Leicester’s undoing this season.

Bath are the final team currently sitting in the play off positions. Is it shock? Probably not, considering the squad they have assembled for this season.  The biggest plus for Bath, the two fingers they have given to all their doubters over the form of George Ford.  Touted as one of the worst moves to make (from Leicester to Bath) he has played with aplomb so farm, orchestrating 3 wins out of 5. To start with, they have an excellent coaching set up in Gary Gold, Mike Ford and Toby Booth. Add to this a whopping pack with new additions Alafoti Fa'osiliva, Leroy Houston and Matt Garvey and a backline with international class and you see that Bath could be starting to fulfil their potential.

Their backs look electric and could pose the meanest of defences a problem. New acquisitions Jonathon Joseph and Anthony Watson join a back division which boasts Matt Banahan, Tom Biggs and the ever impressive Semesa Rokoduguni. Add to this two international fly halves in George Ford and Tom Heathcote and you have the makings of a very potent back line. There is even everyone’s favourite Gavin Henson. I still stand by what I said when he joined Saracens. If he can get back to the form he had when he burst on to the scene then Bath have made a very astute signing. If he doesn’t find that form then Bath will look equally as stupid as Saracens, Toulon and Cardiff Blues and Henson’s career will head further down the pan!

The one area of definite weakness is their squad strength! I know Francois Louw is still to return and this is fantastic news, but against Saracens they really lacked a cutting edge. The first few weeks they had been unstoppable, defeating Leicester at the Rec was a definite highlight. Against a rampaging Saracens at Allianz Park they decided to rest/bench their top players and it proved to be their undoing in a 31-17 drubbing. They shipped 31 points in the first half and was it not for these rested players coming on in the second half, it could have been even worse. 

Will the top 4 stay this way? We will have to see. I can’t see Saracens or Northampton being dislodged but 3rd and 4th are definitely up for grabs. I will assess the merits of the teams further down the table in my next article and asses whether or not we have the potential for a shift of power in the Aviva Premiership. 

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